Market Condition Report – August 2007

MARKET CONDITION REPORT INLAND EMPIRE – WEST END August 2007

THIS YEAR LAST YEAR

Year to Date Sales

This Year	Last Year	Change	% Change
3,217	4,917	-1,700	-34.6%

The market is remaining rather constant relative to last year varying by a few percentage points either way. Last report was -35.3 %. This is generally in line with other areas surveyed. There are markets performing at a lower level than Inland Empire-West (Victor Valley -51%), but there is also Santa Barbara at +6%. This implies the current market condition varies according to area and price class. Note from the History of Median Sales Price the market peaked in terms of price in the late spring-early summer of 2006. MARKET QUICK LOOK

Indicator	Comment – Current Position and Movement	Buyer	Seller	Neutral
DEMAND	Increasing moderately-slower for CONDO. No trend.		-	-
SUPPLY	Rising slowly-near peak.		-	-
PERCENT SELLING (Market Efficiency)	Increased 2 points-too small to be meaningful. No trend.		-	-
DAYS ON MARKET	Steady.	-	-
MONTHS SUPPLY	Declining slowly-movement favorable to seller. No trend.		-	-
60 DAY ABSORB (Market Speed)	Very small positive movement. Not meaningful.		-	-
PRICES	List, Ask, Close Price-off moderately. Negative trend.		-	-
FUTURE PRICE INDICATOR	Expect declines to limit of $450K for SFR and $329K for CONDO.		-	-

In terms of current position the market is clearly favorable to the buyer. In terms of movement the market is moving toward the seller. However, this movement is very slight and tentative. No clear trends are evident except a tendency to declining prices (see graph History of Median Sales Price).

MCR TIP The 60 DAY ABSORB RATE measures market speed. Another way to think about the ABSORB RATE is the rate that listings are converted to closings in a 60 day period. The higher the ABSORB RATE, the quicker this conversion is occurring and the more the market is moving toward the seller. The opposite is true.

WORDS OF WISDOM Effective leadership is not about making speeches or being liked; leadership is defined by results not attributes (Peter Drucker).

Click here to view Market Condition Report.

Fed Discount Window Cut

Fed Discount Window Cut
What does it mean for you?

The Federal Reserve has taken significant action in the last few weeks due to the credit crunch. And now they’ve made an unexpected move by cutting the discount window rate – which is great news. I’ll get to that in a minute, but first let’s look at recent events and understand what they mean.

Market movement
To date, over 120 mortgage companies have closed their doors due to reduced liquidity. The result: Borrowers who want to take out non-conforming loans have fewer, more expensive options.

Many media outlets have incorrectly added fuel to the fire by stating that mortgage lending has stopped altogether and that borrowers can’t get a loan without a 20% down-payment. This is not true.

Conforming interest rates and loan programs, those backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have not been significantly impacted by recent events. Even better, interest rates have come down from recent highs. While this is good news, the market is experiencing unprecedented volatility and changes could come at any time. Borrowers need to act swiftly and decisively in today’s climate.

What did the Fed do?
Now back to the discount rate. This is the interest rate charged to commercial banks and other depository institutions on the loans they receive from their regional Federal Reserve Bank’s lending facility. The Fed’s decision to cut this rate provides stability in the financial markets and this can be good for all of us.

How exactly does this provide stability? Here’s an example: Imagine you just wrecked your car and it requires $5,000 worth of repairs. You have a short-term need for cash to pay your mechanic. Even though you know you will eventually be reimbursed by your insurance company, you still need the cash now. So do you sell off stocks to get the cash, or tap into an equity line of credit? Most likely, you draw from that line of credit rather than liquidating a long-term investment.

This is what the banks are facing in today’s liquidity crisis. And Bernanke’s move helps them avoid long-term damage by supplying access to short-term cash.

It’s important to note that the discount rate is different than the Fed Funds Rate, which directly impacts interest rates that you pay for Home Equity Lines of Credit, credit cards, and automobile loans. Most importantly, the discount window rate cut does not directly impact mortgage rates.

What should you do now?
Information, knowledge, and expertise are the building blocks of sound financial decision making. If you are considering financing or are in the process of financing a home, you should tap into the resources of a skilled mortgage professional. I strongly encourage you to contact me as soon as possible. I would welcome the chance to help you navigate these choppy waters.

Credit Crisis Cripples The Market

Just last week, American Home Mortgage and its wholesale counterpart, American Brokers Conduit, became the latest casualties of the credit crisis. Last year, this company closed over $58 billion in home loans. Despite being, by all accounts, a well-run business, market conditions forced them to file for bankruptcy, leaving nearly $800 million in loans unable to close. Tens of thousands of borrowers have now been left without financing as a result of companies like this going under. Clearly, with over 100 national lenders having now closed shop in the last eight months, this is no longer simply a subprime lending issue. The credit market is experiencing unprecedented turmoil that, according to Mike Perry, CEO of Indymac Bancorp, is “broader and more serious than past disruptions.”

What does this mean for to the real estate market?

• Sellers can no longer be reluctant to accept offers or reduce prices. Tightening credit and diminishing mortgage products will continue to reduce the pool of qualified buyers. This, along with the increase in national inventories, means now is not the time to hold out for the “best” price possible.

• Buyers with credit issues or who have difficulty providing required documentation can no longer sit on the fence. If market conditions change, buyers who qualify for a loan today may not qualify a few weeks from now for the same exact loan. Just this week, many lenders have stopped offering no-Doc loans, and some lenders have even pulled back on all forms of stated loans. As market conditions continue to change, a buyer’s pre-approval status can disappear even more quickly, delaying or spoiling the deal.

• Subprime and Alt-A refi candidates, especially those with ARMs scheduled to reset over the next 12 months, need to act now – even those with a pre-payment penalty. ARMs borrowers struggling with monthly payments now might be shocked to know that monthly payments can double in some cases once an ARM resets.

What does this mean to you?

As educated Real Estate and Mortgage professionals, we feel it’s our responsibility to educate and inform you. Please feel free to utilize our experience and resources to help navigate through these turbulent times. Don’t leave your future in the hands of random mortgage providers. We’re local, accountable, and you can trust us to discuss this or any other strategies to survive in today’s challenging market. Don’t hesitate to call us. We’re happy to speak with you.

Market Condition Report – July 2007

MARKET CONDITION REPORT

INLAND EMPIRE WEST
July 8, 2007
PROVIDED BY CHICAGO TITLE

The market stalls as demand declines and supply is relatively constant.

Price weakness looks inevitable as pending price is less than current closing price.

See all the details in the attached Market Condition Report (MCR) for the Inland Empire West area.

Protect Yourself. Protect Your Identity.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER YOUR MORTGAGE ORIGINATOR PULLS YOUR CREDIT REPORT?

1. Your mortgage originator pulls your credit report from the credit bureaus to obtain your credit score and process your loan application.

2. The credit bureaus may place your personal information on a prescreened list (also called a trigger list).

3. Within hours the credit bureaus may sell the list to hundreds of companies. Your mortgage originator does not authorize the sale of your personal information and cannot stop it. Only you have the ability to stop this practice.

4. Within hours you begin to receive phone solicitations for mortgage products from numbers and companies you don’t recognize.

5. Within days you begin to receive mail solicitations for mortgage products.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

1. The “bait-and-switch” scheme. This scheme is run by companies who get business by luring consumers in with low rates and then switching the loan product.

2. Solicitations (phone and mail) that appear to be from your current mortgage company. Always confirm who you are speaking with.

3. Solicitations asking for pin numbers, passwords, your mother’s maiden name and/or your social security number.

4. If you believe you have been the target of one of these deceitful practices or some other abuse of the system, please report the incident to the Federal Trade Commission at 1-877-FTC-HELP (1-877-382-4357); TTY: 1-866-653-4261.

WHAT YOU CAN DO

1. Opt-Out of prescreened offers.

2. Register with the Do-Not-Call Registry, www.donotcall.gov.

3. Contact the Federal Trade Commission.

4. Contact Congress.

5. Stop other forms of direct marketing by visiting the Direct Mail Association’s Web site at: www.dmaconsumers.org/consumerassistance.html.

Worried? Want To Do More To Protect Your Information?

Voice your concerns by calling your Congressional Representative at 202-224-3121.

FAQs

WHAT IS A PRESCREENED OFFER OF CREDIT OR INSURANCE?

A firm offer of credit or insurance is defined as any offer of credit or insurance to a consumer that will be honored if the consumer is determined, based on the consumer’s credit report, to meet the specific criteria used to select the consumer for the offer, subject to certain confirmation requirements.

WHAT IS OPT-OUT?

Opting-Out refers to the process of removing your name from lists supplied by the Consumer Credit Reporting Companies, Equifax, Experian, Innovis and TransUnion (“Credit Bureaus”), to be used for firm (pre-approved /prescreened) offers of credit or insurance. Your rights as a consumer under the Fair Credit Reporting Act include the right to “Opt-Out” for 5 years or permanently.

HOW TO OPT-OUT

You can opt-out by visiting www.optoutprescreen.com or through the toll-free telephone number, 888-567-8688. When you call or visit the website, you’ll be asked to provide personal information, including your home telephone number, name, Social Security number, and date of birth. The information you provide is confidential and will be used only to process your request to opt out.

DOES EXERCISING MY RIGHT TO OPT-OUT AFFECT MY ABILITY TO APPLY FOR CREDIT OR INSURANCE?

No, removing your name from these lists does not affect your ability to apply for or obtain credit or insurance.

DOES OPTING-OUT IMPROVE MY CREDIT SCORE?

No, since inquiries for firm offers for credit or insurance are not used in calculating credit scores, Opting-Out does not improve your credit score. Similarly, inquiries for firm offers for credit or insurance do not reduce your credit score.

HOW DO I CONTACT THE FTC?

Federal Trade Commission

Consumer Response Center

Room 130600 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20580

www.ftc.gov/credit/

Getting Safely Out Of ARMs Way

Here’s another great way to protect yourself from the current meltdown in the housing market. If you own a home and have an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) set to adjust higher you need to:

• Know your credit score.
• Know the contents of your credit report.
• Clean up your credit report and remove inaccuracies to maximize your credit score.

With the recent changes to the housing market the lenders have made changes to underwriting guidelines. Underwriting guidelines are based on your credit. When underwriting guidelines get more stringent it is the people with the better credit that continue to qualify for good home loans.

READ MORE>>

Are We On The Rebound?

While the housing market continues to decline, there is a broad consensus among economists that a rebound will occur in 2008.

According to the ECONOMIC FOCUS, Volume 11, Issue 24 for the week of June 22nd, inorder for a rebound in 2008 the housing market must first bottom out. So, simple logic dictates that if we are a few months away from the rebound then we must be even fewer months away from the bottom.

“I still think we’re not at the bottom in terms of housing construction,” says Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. “Sales have to bottom out first. …We haven’t seen that yet. And then construction starts will probably bottom out nine months after that.”

If this holds true, a decline in new home construction should indicate that we are months closer to a bottoming out moving us closer to a recovery. Further, if there is a nine month lag in construction starts and if the industry will start its recovery in 2008 then simple math would place the bottom sometime prior to 2nd Quarter 08.

• May’s numbers were mixed, but in line with expectations, and reflected weakness in the South and West, offsetting construction gains in the Northeast and Midwest. The positive message is that numbers are mixed and not down across the board.
• Construction of single-family homes dropped 3.3 percent in May while apartment construction rose by 3.1 percent, another mixed signal. Historically, a hot housing market draws buyers from the rental rolls and causes a decline in apartment starts. This reversal indicates market corrections at the beginning of the manufacturing process, and as new home inventories shrink, demand will build in the coming months.
• Finally, interest rates remain flat. The Fed has held their rates steady for nearly a year with no indication of sharp rises in the near future. The last thing the Fed wants to do is take the remaining breath out of housing with higher mortgage rates.

Perhaps the soothsayers are correct and we are nearing the bottom and a recovery in the housing market is near.

Top 10 Markets With Highest Mortgage Risk, Summer 2007

The PMI Group has come out with their summer analysis of the metropolitan regions that have the highest risk of housing losing it’s value in the next two years. The Inland Empire region of Southern California is leading the way followed closely by Phoenix and Las Vegas. All 3 of these regions experienced huge housing gains during 2004 – 2005 so expectations of a flat or negative period are not expected.

PMI Group is one of the largest underwriters of Private Mortgage Insurance so it is in their best interest to know and understand markets and calibrate their PMI rates to counter the risk that is faced.

Top 10 Markets With Highest Mortgage Risk, Summer 2007

1. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA (652)
2. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (646)
3. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV (614)
4. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL (607)
5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (586)
6. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA (577)
7. Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA (572)
8. Orlando-Kissimee, FL (563)
9. Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA (560)
10. San Diego-Carslbad-San Marcos, CA (555)

Subprime Lending Fallout Goes Upstream to Take Down Two Major Hedge Funds: What does this Mean To Real Estate Investors?

By: Michael Cook

Two major Bear Stearns Hedge Funds face foreclosure due to their significant exposure to the subprime lending market. While this does not fall under the category of real estate investor, I spent last summer working for Bear Stearns and interacting with many of their hedge funds. Based on the very limited details of the stories out now, I cannot be certain if I have worked with these two particular funds. I can be certain; however, that it would not be a good time to be in the mortgage space at Bear Stearns.

In my three months at Bear Stearns, I met some of the smartest people in the businiess. While this is not an advertisement to work at Bear Stearns, I think they are a very well run organization with smart people. This of course begs the question, how could something like this happen to such smart people? Furthermore, with all of the subprime lending issues out there, what does this mean for borrowers who are less creditworthy?

Simply put, in my humble opinion, the subprime market will be doomed for some years (at least five or more). Since I know this site is filled with a ton of very smart mortgage brokers, I will outline my reasoning.

Consider the following information:

1. Many subprime lenders have filed for bankruptcy
2. Major buyers of Mortgage Backed Securities (like Bear Stearns) are having issues with subprime mortgages
3. Despite what the National Association of Realtors says, the housing market seems to be taking a slow and steady turn for the worse
4. Major Banks have tightened their lending policies

Let’s take an example of a typical transaction before the subprime fallout. A low creditworthy borrower applies for a subprime loan. Some intermediary or mortgage broker, supplies them with the best loan for them from either a bank or a conduit lender. The bank/conduit lender then sells the loan to an investment bank (like a Bear Stearns or Goldman Sachs) to free up more money to lend and to remove the risk off their books. Finally, the investment bank packages this loan in the form of bonds that investors looking for high rates of return are eager to purchase. While this seems like a complicated cycle, it actually works quite smoothly as long as there are investors looking to buy these loans.

Now reflecting today’s market conditions, the picture has a lot more holes. When the low creditworthy borrower applies for a subprime loan, many of the intermediaries no longer exist. Even if they try to go to a mortgage broker, they will be hard pressed to find a lender. If they do find a lender, this lender will have trouble moving the loan to an investment bank. Investors, who have been burned by heavy defaults ( i.e. Bear Stearns Hedge Funds), will not be looking to buy high yield bonds backed by subprime loans. Additionally, those who are looking will expect to pay deep discounts.

To put the final nail in the coffin, consider areas like California where subprime lending was a driver of the housing market. With very few alternatives, a lot of buyers will be sucked out of the market. Additionally, these buyers will probably not be back for a while. For those buyers expecting a quick rebound, think again. Until prices get to levels buyers deem affordable (meaning they can afford the down payment), a recovery simply cannot happen. I would love to hear from others who have different opinion, but as an investor, I am looking into apartments more now then ever. If buyers cannot afford to buy, they will have to rent.

The Bond & Home Loan Markets Are In Turmoil

Is Your Financial Future Secure?

Interest rates, including those tied to home loans, soared sharply last week across several markets, alarming consumers and investors alike. Let’s examine what caused rates to increase, how it could impact you, and what you should do about it.

The sharp rise we saw last week was the result of an economic shift in the global market. Two different foreign central banks, similar to the Federal Reserve in the US, increased their short-term interest rates in an effort to fend off inflation. The first increase took place in Europe, with New Zealand following soon after. The results, while dramatic worldwide, were particularly so here in the United States, where interest rates increased across the board.

This had an immediate impact on those seeking home financing, as rates rose to the highest levels seen since last summer. While interest rates are currently under 7.00% , they may not remain there for long. As past years have demonstrated, a rapid rise in interest rates sometimes serves as merely a pre-cursor to even higher rates in the coming months.

Could we see a repeat of 1993-1994, when 30-year fixed interest rates rose from 6.69% to 8.23% in just five months? (These figures are according to HSH Associates.)

If you are considering a new home purchase or a refinance, act now. Waiting could cost you significantly. If we were to experience a similar increase on a mortgage amount of $250,000, the monthly payment would increase by over $263 a month.

While no one can predict exactly what will happen, experts in the bond arena have expressed concerns that rates will continue to increase throughout the rest of the year. Some believe that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates prior to year end. This would increase interest rates for existing Home Equity loans, credit card loans, and potentially existing ARMs.

Please contact us as soon as possible. We will provide you with a Free, No Cost Analysis of how we can improve your financial position today and save you from a potential increase in monthly payments.