Market Condition Report – July 2007

MARKET CONDITION REPORT

INLAND EMPIRE WEST
July 8, 2007
PROVIDED BY CHICAGO TITLE

The market stalls as demand declines and supply is relatively constant.

Price weakness looks inevitable as pending price is less than current closing price.

See all the details in the attached Market Condition Report (MCR) for the Inland Empire West area.

Are We On The Rebound?

While the housing market continues to decline, there is a broad consensus among economists that a rebound will occur in 2008.

According to the ECONOMIC FOCUS, Volume 11, Issue 24 for the week of June 22nd, inorder for a rebound in 2008 the housing market must first bottom out. So, simple logic dictates that if we are a few months away from the rebound then we must be even fewer months away from the bottom.

“I still think we’re not at the bottom in terms of housing construction,” says Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. “Sales have to bottom out first. …We haven’t seen that yet. And then construction starts will probably bottom out nine months after that.”

If this holds true, a decline in new home construction should indicate that we are months closer to a bottoming out moving us closer to a recovery. Further, if there is a nine month lag in construction starts and if the industry will start its recovery in 2008 then simple math would place the bottom sometime prior to 2nd Quarter 08.

• May’s numbers were mixed, but in line with expectations, and reflected weakness in the South and West, offsetting construction gains in the Northeast and Midwest. The positive message is that numbers are mixed and not down across the board.
• Construction of single-family homes dropped 3.3 percent in May while apartment construction rose by 3.1 percent, another mixed signal. Historically, a hot housing market draws buyers from the rental rolls and causes a decline in apartment starts. This reversal indicates market corrections at the beginning of the manufacturing process, and as new home inventories shrink, demand will build in the coming months.
• Finally, interest rates remain flat. The Fed has held their rates steady for nearly a year with no indication of sharp rises in the near future. The last thing the Fed wants to do is take the remaining breath out of housing with higher mortgage rates.

Perhaps the soothsayers are correct and we are nearing the bottom and a recovery in the housing market is near.

Subprime Lending Fallout Goes Upstream to Take Down Two Major Hedge Funds: What does this Mean To Real Estate Investors?

By: Michael Cook

Two major Bear Stearns Hedge Funds face foreclosure due to their significant exposure to the subprime lending market. While this does not fall under the category of real estate investor, I spent last summer working for Bear Stearns and interacting with many of their hedge funds. Based on the very limited details of the stories out now, I cannot be certain if I have worked with these two particular funds. I can be certain; however, that it would not be a good time to be in the mortgage space at Bear Stearns.

In my three months at Bear Stearns, I met some of the smartest people in the businiess. While this is not an advertisement to work at Bear Stearns, I think they are a very well run organization with smart people. This of course begs the question, how could something like this happen to such smart people? Furthermore, with all of the subprime lending issues out there, what does this mean for borrowers who are less creditworthy?

Simply put, in my humble opinion, the subprime market will be doomed for some years (at least five or more). Since I know this site is filled with a ton of very smart mortgage brokers, I will outline my reasoning.

Consider the following information:

1. Many subprime lenders have filed for bankruptcy
2. Major buyers of Mortgage Backed Securities (like Bear Stearns) are having issues with subprime mortgages
3. Despite what the National Association of Realtors says, the housing market seems to be taking a slow and steady turn for the worse
4. Major Banks have tightened their lending policies

Let’s take an example of a typical transaction before the subprime fallout. A low creditworthy borrower applies for a subprime loan. Some intermediary or mortgage broker, supplies them with the best loan for them from either a bank or a conduit lender. The bank/conduit lender then sells the loan to an investment bank (like a Bear Stearns or Goldman Sachs) to free up more money to lend and to remove the risk off their books. Finally, the investment bank packages this loan in the form of bonds that investors looking for high rates of return are eager to purchase. While this seems like a complicated cycle, it actually works quite smoothly as long as there are investors looking to buy these loans.

Now reflecting today’s market conditions, the picture has a lot more holes. When the low creditworthy borrower applies for a subprime loan, many of the intermediaries no longer exist. Even if they try to go to a mortgage broker, they will be hard pressed to find a lender. If they do find a lender, this lender will have trouble moving the loan to an investment bank. Investors, who have been burned by heavy defaults ( i.e. Bear Stearns Hedge Funds), will not be looking to buy high yield bonds backed by subprime loans. Additionally, those who are looking will expect to pay deep discounts.

To put the final nail in the coffin, consider areas like California where subprime lending was a driver of the housing market. With very few alternatives, a lot of buyers will be sucked out of the market. Additionally, these buyers will probably not be back for a while. For those buyers expecting a quick rebound, think again. Until prices get to levels buyers deem affordable (meaning they can afford the down payment), a recovery simply cannot happen. I would love to hear from others who have different opinion, but as an investor, I am looking into apartments more now then ever. If buyers cannot afford to buy, they will have to rent.